Hoodie Analytics projects the Commonwealth could command 4% of national cannabis sales as incoming Governor Abigail Spanberger prepares to pursue adult-use retail legislation.
Virginia just leveled up. After years of stop-start cannabis reform, voters elected Abigail Spanberger as governor on November 4, setting the stage for the state’s long-awaited entry into adult-use cannabis.
Spanberger has been clear about her stance: legalization, done right, means a safe, transparent, and fair market that reinvests cannabis tax revenue back into Virginia communities. With her win, the path toward retail sales looks real.
This week, Hoodie Analytics co-founder and president Kris Walker shared a chart that lit up LinkedIn and the industry. His message was simple but bold: “A fully developed recreational adult-use program in Virginia represents almost 4% of total U.S. cannabis sales and nearly 7% of future growth.”
Hoodie’s analysis pegs Virginia’s potential at roughly $2.5 billion in annual sales once the market matures. That scale would be comparable to recent annual sales in Massachusetts and below Michigan’s latest totals, underscoring Virginia’s potential to become a Mid-Atlantic leader. See Massachusetts’ 2024 adult-use total of about $1.65 billion and Michigan’s 2024 total of roughly $3.27 billion (per CRA reporting).
For now, Virginians can legally possess up to an ounce of cannabis and grow up to four plants per household, but retail sales haven’t started. A legislative commission has been preparing a retail bill for the 2026 session. Earlier 2025 retail frameworks that referenced May 2026 were passed by the legislature but vetoed.
For comparison, Michigan topped $3 billion in legal cannabis sales in 2024. Under state law, adult-use purchases are subject to a 10% excise tax plus 6% sales tax. The Michigan Treasury separately reported more than $331 million available for distribution from the Marihuana Regulation Fund for FY 2024 (excise-tax-based, fiscal-year accounting).
Walker’s post captured the optimism swirling through the sector. “The Virginia opportunity is here,” he wrote, calling the state’s potential “almost 7% of future cannabis growth.” He also urged federal action, expressing hope that President Trump’s administration will follow through on campaign commitments for reform.
At the federal level, banking access remains constrained and Internal Revenue Code § 280E still applies while cannabis remains a Schedule I or II controlled substance. FinCEN’s 2014 guidance to financial institutions on marijuana-related businesses remains the operative framework.
The data backs the mood. Hoodie’s chart shows fully developed markets hitting about $800 per household in annual cannabis spend.
The Old Dominion may have been late to the legal weed party, but it has momentum. As Walker’s chart suggests, the next big growth story in U.S. cannabis might start in Richmond.
Photo by Elsa Olofsson on Unsplash
